Major League Soccer
Jul 16, 2023 at 12.30am UK
Subaru Park
We said: Philadelphia Union 2-1 New York City FC
While the Union have been rather inconsistent since the beginning of June, we believe they will sort things out and find their form like we have seen them do many times in the past.
Bakrar should help New York in front of the goal when he arrives, but they will need more than one new face to turn around their road woes this season.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 66.29% . A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 13.21% .
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.03% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.85%) and 2-1 (9.57%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.7%) , while for a New York City FC win it was 0-1 (4.92%) . The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Philadelphia Union in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Philadelphia Union.
Result Philadelphia Union Draw New York City FC 66.29% ( 0.56) 20.5% ( -0.28) 13.21% ( -0.28)
Both teams to score 45.18% ( 0.08)
51.05% ( 0.53) 48.95% ( -0.53)
28.96% ( 0.48) 71.03% ( -0.48)
86.09% ( 0.34) 13.91% ( -0.34)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 58.66% ( 0.66) 41.34% ( -0.66)
52.48% ( -0.12) 47.51% ( 0.11)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 17.12% ( -0.09) 82.87% ( 0.09)
Philadelphia Union 66.27%
New York City FC 13.21%
Draw 20.5%
Philadelphia Union Draw New York City FC 1-0 @ 13.03% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 12.85% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.57% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.46% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 3.1% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.07) 5-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.43% Total : 66.27% 1-1 @ 9.7% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.64% Total : 20.5% 0-1 @ 4.92% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.85% Total : 13.21%
How you voted: Philadelphia vs NY City
Philadelphia Union
Draw
New York City FC
14
rhs 2.0
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