Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 59.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 17.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.77%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.95%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
Result | ||
Philadelphia Union | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
59.66% ( 0.11) | 23.22% ( -0.2) | 17.12% ( 0.1) |
Both teams to score 46.1% ( 0.77) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.36% ( 0.92) | 52.64% ( -0.92) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.71% ( 0.79) | 74.29% ( -0.78) |
Philadelphia Union Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.67% ( 0.37) | 17.33% ( -0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.3% ( 0.65) | 47.7% ( -0.65) |
New York Red Bulls Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.76% ( 0.68) | 44.24% ( -0.68) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.68% ( 0.55) | 80.32% ( -0.55) |
Score Analysis |
Philadelphia Union | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
1-0 @ 13.43% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 11.77% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 6.88% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.61% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 3.02% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.09) 5-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.52% Total : 59.64% | 1-1 @ 10.95% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.67% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.68% Total : 23.21% | 0-1 @ 6.25% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 2.55% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.57% Total : 17.12% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 35 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 33 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 29 |
4 | New York City FCNY City | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 29 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 25 |
6 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
7 | Toronto | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 20 |
9 | Nashville SCNashville | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 19 |
10 | DC United | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 19 |
11 | Orlando City | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 17 |
12 | CF MontrealMontreal | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 17 |
13 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 16 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 15 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 10 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 33 |
2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 30 |
3 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 28 |
4 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 28 |
5 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 25 |
6 | Austin FCAustin | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 23 |
7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 22 |
8 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 22 |
9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 20 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
11 | St Louis City | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 17 |
12 | Dallas | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 13 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 11 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 11 |