Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 49%. A win for Stoke City Under-21s had a probability of 29.56% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.03%) and 2-0 (5.78%). The likeliest Stoke City Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-21s would win this match.