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AFC Wimbledon
Accrington Stanley
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Bromley
Carlisle United
Cheltenham Town
Chesterfield
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Fleetwood Town
Gillingham
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MK Dons
Morecambe
Newport County
Notts County
Port Vale
Salford City
Swindon Town
Tranmere Rovers
Walsall
Newport County
League Two | Gameweek 24
Jan 2, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Rodney Parade
AFC Wimbledon

Newport
1 - 2
AFC Wimbledon

Greaves (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kelly (49'), Sawyers (77')
Harbottle (41'), Tilley (53'), Kelly (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's League Two clash between Newport County and AFC Wimbledon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Walsall 2-0 Newport
Sunday, December 29 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Newport County 1-1 AFC Wimbledon

Wimbledon will be targeting all three points to aid in their promotion push, but we think that they may have to settle for a share of the spoils, especially as four of their previous five meetings between the two sides have finished all square. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 52.37%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 23.77%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.71%) and 0-2 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for a Newport County win it was 1-0 (6.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
Newport CountyDrawAFC Wimbledon
23.77% (-0.349 -0.35) 23.86% (0.056999999999999 0.06) 52.37% (0.29499999999999 0.29)
Both teams to score 54.13% (-0.581 -0.58)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.96% (-0.581 -0.58)47.04% (0.585 0.59)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.72% (-0.544 -0.54)69.29% (0.54599999999999 0.55)
Newport County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.96% (-0.62299999999999 -0.62)34.04% (0.625 0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.28% (-0.676 -0.68)70.72% (0.678 0.68)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.06% (-0.105 -0.11)17.94% (0.106 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.24% (-0.183 -0.18)48.76% (0.185 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Newport County 23.77%
    AFC Wimbledon 52.37%
    Draw 23.85%
Newport CountyDrawAFC Wimbledon
1-0 @ 6.58% (0.049 0.05)
2-1 @ 6.09% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-0 @ 3.55% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-1 @ 2.19% (-0.067 -0.07)
3-2 @ 1.88% (-0.064 -0.06)
3-0 @ 1.27% (-0.035 -0.04)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 23.77%
1-1 @ 11.3% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 6.11% (0.148 0.15)
2-2 @ 5.23% (-0.087 -0.09)
3-3 @ 1.08% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 23.85%
0-1 @ 10.49% (0.22 0.22)
1-2 @ 9.71% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
0-2 @ 9.01% (0.157 0.16)
1-3 @ 5.56% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-3 @ 5.16% (0.072 0.07)
2-3 @ 3% (-0.06 -0.06)
1-4 @ 2.39% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-4 @ 2.22% (0.023 0.02)
2-4 @ 1.29% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 3.53%
Total : 52.37%

How you voted: Newport vs AFC Wimbledon

Newport County
55.6%
Draw
7.4%
AFC Wimbledon
37.0%
27
Head to Head
Dec 3, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 18
AFC Wimbledon
2-2
Newport
Smith (12'), Stevens (20')
Bugiel (45+1'), O'Toole (51'), Neufville (75')
Jackson (46')
Spellman (26'), McLoughlin (90+7' pen.)
Mar 16, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 39
AFC Wimbledon
0-2
Newport

O'Toole (20')
Morris (9'), Jameson (55')
Lewis (36'), Jameson (36'), Bennett (45'), Payne (70')
Sep 2, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 6
Newport
2-2
AFC Wimbledon
Evans (45+2'), Bogle (55')
Delaney (33')
Tilley (9', 30')
Pell (90+6')
Mar 14, 2023 7.45pm
Dec 26, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 23
AFC Wimbledon
1-1
Newport
Chislett (58')
Zanzala (70' pen.)
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall23164343202352
2AFC Wimbledon23124735191640
3Notts County24117638261240
4Doncaster RoversDoncaster2411763428640
5Salford City2311662819939
6Crewe AlexandraCrewe2310942921839
7Port Vale2410862724338
8Grimsby Town24121113537-237
9Bradford CityBradford239863026435
10Chesterfield249783829934
11Bromley2381053426834
12MK Dons2210483630634
13Cheltenham TownCheltenham248793436-231
14Gillingham2393112224-230
15BarrowBarrow237792324-128
16Colchester UnitedColchester2351262826227
17Fleetwood TownFleetwood226972828027
18Newport CountyNewport2375113040-1026
19Swindon TownSwindon2559113141-1024
20Accrington StanleyAccrington2257103040-1022
21Tranmere RoversTranmere2257101632-1622
22Harrogate TownHarrogate2464141937-1822
23Morecambe2455142239-1720
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2346131937-1818


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