Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United Under-21s win with a probability of 75.18%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 10.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.79%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 2-1 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United Under-21s would win this match.