Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 64.56%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 17.98% and a draw had a probability of 17.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (4.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-21s would win this match.