Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Everton had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Everton win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
39.6% ( -2.39) | 26.37% ( 0.24) | 34.03% ( 2.15) |
Both teams to score 52.71% ( -0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.01% ( -0.48) | 51.99% ( 0.48) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.27% ( -0.41) | 73.73% ( 0.42) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.24% ( -1.46) | 25.76% ( 1.46) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.3% ( -2.02) | 60.69% ( 2.03) |
Everton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.99% ( 1.17) | 29.01% ( -1.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.09% ( 1.42) | 64.91% ( -1.42) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
1-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.24) 2-1 @ 8.51% ( -0.29) 2-0 @ 6.87% ( -0.46) 3-1 @ 3.85% ( -0.3) 3-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.35) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.16) 4-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.17) Other @ 2.39% Total : 39.6% | 1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 5.27% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.37% | 0-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.46) 1-2 @ 7.76% ( 0.32) 0-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.46) 1-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.23) 0-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.26) 2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.57% Total : 34.03% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 47 | 19 | 28 | 46 |
2 | Arsenal | 20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 40 |
3 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 40 |
4 | Chelsea | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 36 |
5 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 |
6 | Manchester CityMan City | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 34 |
7 | Bournemouth | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 33 |
8 | Aston Villa | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 32 |
9 | Fulham | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 30 |
10 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 28 |
11 | Brentford | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 35 | 3 | 27 |
12 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 30 | 12 | 24 |
13 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 23 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 23 |
15 | Crystal Palace | 20 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 21 |
16 | Everton | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 17 |
17 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 16 |
18 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 16 |
19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 14 |
20 | Southampton | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 44 | -32 | 6 |
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