Premier League | Gameweek 38
May 28, 2023 at 4.30pm UK
Villa Park
Aston Villa2 - 1Brighton
The Match
Match Report
For the first time in 13 years, Aston Villa will compete in Europe next season after ending the Premier League campaign with a 2-1 win over Brighton & Hove Albion.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Liverpool 1-1 Aston Villa
Saturday, May 20 at 3pm in Premier League
Saturday, May 20 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brighton 1-1 Man City
Wednesday, May 24 at 8pm in Premier League
Wednesday, May 24 at 8pm in Premier League
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 39.06%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 37.15% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.02%) and 0-2 (5.54%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion |
37.15% ( 0.16) | 23.79% ( 0.03) | 39.06% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 62.25% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.15% ( -0.12) | 39.84% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.8% ( -0.13) | 62.2% ( 0.13) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.44% ( 0.03) | 21.56% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.36% ( 0.05) | 54.64% ( -0.05) |
| Brighton & Hove Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.37% ( -0.14) | 20.63% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.8% ( -0.23) | 53.2% ( 0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
Aston Villa 37.15%
Brighton & Hove Albion 39.06%
Draw 23.79%
| Aston Villa | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.23% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.28% 4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.66% Total : 37.15% | 1-1 @ 10.77% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.52% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.79% | 1-2 @ 8.5% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.02% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.47% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.43% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.77% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.91% Total : 39.06% |
How you voted: Aston Villa vs Brighton
Aston Villa
57.8%Draw
18.0%Brighton & Hove Albion
24.2%128
Form Guide
