Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 64.85%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 15.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.38%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.