Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 59.75%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 21.1% and a draw had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.23%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-2 (5.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.