Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 68.49%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 12.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.05%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.94%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (4.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.