Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 43.3%. A win for AVS had a probability of 29.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.13%). The likeliest AVS win was 1-0 (9.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
Result | ||
AVS | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
29.55% ( 0.05) | 27.15% ( 0.01) | 43.3% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 48.72% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.64% ( -0.03) | 56.36% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.62% ( -0.02) | 77.38% ( 0.01) |
AVS Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.66% ( 0.03) | 34.34% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.96% ( 0.03) | 71.04% ( -0.04) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.19% ( -0.05) | 25.8% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.24% ( -0.06) | 60.76% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
AVS | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
1-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.86% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.06% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.44% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.8% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.66% ( 0) Other @ 2.26% Total : 29.55% | 1-1 @ 12.83% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.86% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.64% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.15% | 0-1 @ 12% 1-2 @ 8.69% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.13% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.92% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.67% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.24% ( -0) Other @ 2.21% Total : 43.29% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 14 | 34 | 41 |
2 | Porto | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 40 |
3 | Benfica | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 11 | 27 | 38 |
4 | Braga | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 31 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 31 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 25 |
7 | Casa Pia | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 24 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 22 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 20 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 19 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 18 |
13 | Nacional | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 16 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 16 |
15 | AVS | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
16 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 15 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 14 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 12 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |