Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 76.74%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 8.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.07%) and 3-0 (10.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.24%), while for a Vizela win it was 0-1 (2.97%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Vizela |
76.74% ( 1.07) | 15.24% ( -0.43) | 8.02% ( -0.64) |
Both teams to score 43.81% ( -1.44) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.7% ( -0.25) | 40.3% ( 0.25) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.33% ( -0.26) | 62.67% ( 0.26) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.26% ( 0.18) | 8.74% ( -0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.97% ( 0.45) | 30.03% ( -0.46) |
Vizela Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48% ( -1.68) | 52% ( 1.67) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.99% ( -1.12) | 86% ( 1.12) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Vizela |
2-0 @ 13.49% ( 0.38) 1-0 @ 11.07% ( 0.22) 3-0 @ 10.96% ( 0.4) 2-1 @ 8.83% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 7.17% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 6.68% ( 0.3) 4-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.15) 5-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.08) 6-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.66% Total : 76.72% | 1-1 @ 7.24% ( -0.21) 0-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.21) Other @ 0.57% Total : 15.24% | 0-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.19) 0-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.09) Other @ 1.71% Total : 8.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 14 | 37 | 44 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 14 | 27 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 31 |
6 | Casa Pia | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 27 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 26 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 23 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 21 |
11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 20 |
13 | Nacional | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 19 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 16 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 16 |
16 | SC FarenseFarense | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 15 |
17 | AVS | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |