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Europa League
Benfica
Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 15, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Toulouse

Benfica
2 - 1
Toulouse

di Maria (68' pen., 90+8' pen.)
Kokcu (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Desler (75')
Spierings (37'), Martinez (38'), Desler (43'), Restes (58'), Magri (90+6'), Skytta (90+1'), Mawissa (90+2')
Mawissa (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Benfica and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions
Last Game: Guimaraes 2-2 Benfica
Sunday, February 11 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Toulouse

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Toulouse 1-2 Nantes
Sunday, February 11 at 2pm in Ligue 1

We said: Benfica 3-0 Toulouse

 Despite a minor blip at the weekend, and a recent shock cup exit to Estoril, Benfica have been sensational since December and should have too much firepower for a beleaguered Toulouse side. Another disappointing defeat at the weekend has plunged Toulouse back into relegation trouble at home, and even though they have performed better on the continent this season, this will be a hugely difficult assignment for the French side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 68.32%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 13.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 1-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-2 (3.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
BenficaDrawToulouse
68.32% (0.054000000000002 0.05) 18.11% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02) 13.57% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Both teams to score 54.32% (-0.044000000000004 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.62% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)37.37% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.41% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)59.59% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.02% (0.012 0.01)9.98% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.02% (0.027000000000001 0.03)32.98% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.35% (-0.056000000000004 -0.06)39.65% (0.056000000000004 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.67% (-0.053999999999998 -0.05)76.33% (0.054999999999993 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Benfica 68.31%
    Toulouse 13.57%
    Draw 18.11%
BenficaDrawToulouse
2-0 @ 10.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.72% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 9.12% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-0 @ 8.07% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.47% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-0 @ 4.65% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.3% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 3.45% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
5-0 @ 2.14% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.99% (-0.002 -0)
5-1 @ 1.98% (0.002 0)
5-2 @ 0.92% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.98%
Total : 68.31%
1-1 @ 8.44% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.5% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.96% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 18.11%
1-2 @ 3.9% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
0-1 @ 3.66% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 1.69% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 1.39% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.2% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.73%
Total : 13.57%

How you voted: Benfica vs Toulouse

Benfica
90.4%
Draw
6.0%
Toulouse
3.6%
166
rhs 2.0
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