Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 38%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (10.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.