Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 45.21%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.