Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 60.48%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 18.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.96%) and 2-0 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Ural Yekaterinburg win it was 0-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.