Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 50.63%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 22.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.35%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.