Serie A | Gameweek 28
Apr 3, 2023 at 6.30pm UK
Stadio Carlo Castellani
Empoli1 - 0Lecce
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Atalanta 2-1 Empoli
Friday, March 17 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Friday, March 17 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Fiorentina 1-0 Lecce
Sunday, March 19 at 2pm in Serie A
Sunday, March 19 at 2pm in Serie A
We said: Empoli 1-0 Lecce
Neither side is in top goalscoring form, but Empoli's decent-to-good record at the Castellani — they had gone five unbeaten until recent defeats by Napoli and Udinese — and Lecce's ongoing four-game run without scoring means the Azzurri should edge this one by the odd goal. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Empoli win with a probability of 40.26%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Empoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Empoli in this match.
| Result | ||
| Empoli | Draw | Lecce |
40.26% ( -1.66) | 26.88% ( 0.16) | 32.86% ( 1.51) |
| Both teams to score 50.83% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.73% ( -0.21) | 54.27% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.34% ( -0.18) | 75.66% ( 0.18) |
| Empoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.55% ( -0.98) | 26.45% ( 0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.38% ( -1.32) | 61.62% ( 1.32) |
| Lecce Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.1% ( 0.93) | 30.9% ( -0.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.81% ( 1.07) | 67.19% ( -1.07) |
| Score Analysis |
Empoli 40.25%
Lecce 32.86%
Draw 26.87%
| Empoli | Draw | Lecce |
| 1-0 @ 10.86% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 8.49% ( -0.19)2-0 @ 7.23% ( -0.35)3-1 @ 3.76% ( -0.19)3-0 @ 3.2% ( -0.25)3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.07% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.18% Total : 40.25% | 1-1 @ 12.76% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.87% | 0-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.32) 1-2 @ 7.5% ( 0.23)0-2 @ 5.64% ( 0.32)1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.16)0-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.18)2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.04% Total : 32.86% |
How you voted: Empoli vs Lecce
Empoli
70.8%Draw
18.9%Lecce
10.4%106
