Serie A | Gameweek 25
Mar 5, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Roma1 - 0Juventus
We said: Roma 0-1 Juventus
Juventus are one of two teams, along with leaders Napoil, to have conceded the fewest goals in the second half of Serie A matches this season (eight), while Roma have only conceded nine, so both sides know how to shut up shop. It is sure to be a close-fought affair in the capital, but more misery for Mourinho could be in store, as Juve are masters of nicking a lead and doggedly preserving their advantage until the last whistle. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 41.63%. A win for Juventus had a probability of 30.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Juventus win was 0-1 (10.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Roma in this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Juventus |
41.63% ( -0.14) | 27.85% ( 0.02) | 30.52% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 47.14% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
