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Serie A | Gameweek 20
Jan 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio San Paolo, Napoli
Roma logo

Napoli
2 - 1
Roma

Osimhen (17'), Simeone (86')
Osimhen (68')
FT(HT: 1-0)
El Shaarawy (75')
Dybala (33'), El Shaarawy (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Napoli and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Salernitana 0-2 Napoli
Saturday, January 21 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Spezia 0-2 Roma
Sunday, January 22 at 5pm in Serie A

We said: Napoli 1-0 Roma

Napoli and Roma have conceded the fewest shots on target in Serie A this season, so a goalfest is perhaps not in store on Sunday evening. They are also the teams to have leaked the fewest goals during the second half (only seven apiece), which suggests an early strike for the red-hot hosts could be enough to win it. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 52%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Roma had a probability of 23.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
NapoliDrawRoma
52% (-0.115 -0.12) 24.56% (0.093 0.09) 23.43% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 51.52% (-0.26000000000001 -0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.7% (-0.357 -0.36)50.3% (0.362 0.36)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.75% (-0.316 -0.32)72.25% (0.31999999999999 0.32)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.68% (-0.182 -0.18)19.32% (0.186 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.92% (-0.30200000000001 -0.3)51.08% (0.306 0.31)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.86% (-0.175 -0.17)36.14% (0.18 0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.08% (-0.179 -0.18)72.92% (0.18300000000001 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Napoli 52%
    Roma 23.43%
    Draw 24.56%
NapoliDrawRoma
1-0 @ 11.47% (0.1 0.1)
2-1 @ 9.6% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-0 @ 9.44% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
3-1 @ 5.26% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-0 @ 5.17% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.68% (-0.034 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.16% (-0.03 -0.03)
4-0 @ 2.13% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.1% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 52%
1-1 @ 11.68% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 6.98% (0.101 0.1)
2-2 @ 4.89% (-0.033 -0.03)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.56%
0-1 @ 7.11% (0.069 0.07)
1-2 @ 5.95% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.62% (0.018 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.02% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.66% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.23%
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 23.43%

How you voted: Napoli vs Roma

Napoli
80.1%
Draw
11.9%
Roma
8.0%
176
Head to Head
Oct 23, 2022 7.45pm
Apr 18, 2022 6pm
Napoli
1-1
Roma
Insigne (11' pen.)
Koulibaly (37'), Zanoli (52'), Lozano (63'), Insigne (64')
El Shaarawy (90+1')
Cristante (17'), Zaniolo (71')
Fuzato (79')
Oct 24, 2021 5pm
Roma
0-0
Napoli

Mourinho (19'), Abraham (30'), Mourinho (82'), Karsdorp (90+4'), Veretout (90+4'), Mancini (90+5')

Mertens (90+5')
Spalletti (90+6')
Mar 21, 2021 7.45pm
Roma
0-2
Napoli

Ibanez (26'), Mancini (45+1'), Diawara (59'), El Shaarawy (64'), Villar (85')
Mertens (27', 34')
Zielinski (47'), Koulibaly (78'), Osimhen (90+1')
Nov 29, 2020 7.45pm
Napoli
4-0
Roma
Insigne (31'), Fabian (64'), Mertens (81'), Politano (86')
Di Lorenzo (32')

Ibanez (29'), Cristante (77')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli20152332122047
2Inter Milan18134146153143
3Atalanta BCAtalanta20134344212343
4Lazio2011363428636
5Juventus20713032171534
6Fiorentina1995532201232
7AC Milan1987429191031
8Bologna187832723429
9Udinese207582328-526
10Roma206682826224
11Genoa205871727-1023
12Torino205782025-522
13Empoli204881925-620
14Lecce2055101432-1820
15Parma204792535-1019
16Como204792233-1119
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona2061132444-2019
18CagliariCagliari2046101933-1418
19VeneziaVenezia2035121833-1514
20Monza2027111928-913


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