Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 52%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Roma had a probability of 23.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
Result | ||
Napoli | Draw | Roma |
52% ( -0.12) | 24.56% ( 0.09) | 23.43% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 51.52% ( -0.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.7% ( -0.36) | 50.3% ( 0.36) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.75% ( -0.32) | 72.25% ( 0.32) |
Napoli Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.68% ( -0.18) | 19.32% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.92% ( -0.3) | 51.08% ( 0.31) |
Roma Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.86% ( -0.17) | 36.14% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.08% ( -0.18) | 72.92% ( 0.18) |
Score Analysis |
Napoli | Draw | Roma |
1-0 @ 11.47% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.26% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 5.17% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.16% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.98% Total : 52% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.56% | 0-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.62% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.23% Other @ 1.86% Total : 23.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Napoli | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 53 |
2 | Inter Milan | 21 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 55 | 18 | 37 | 50 |
3 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 25 | 23 | 46 |
4 | Lazio | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 39 |
5 | Juventus | 22 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 37 |
6 | Fiorentina | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 22 | 13 | 36 |
7 | AC Milan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 34 |
8 | Bologna | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 34 |
9 | Roma | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 30 |
10 | Torino | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 26 |
11 | Udinese | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 26 |
12 | Genoa | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 26 |
13 | Como | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 22 |
14 | Empoli | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 21 |
15 | CagliariCagliari | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 21 |
16 | Parma | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 20 |
17 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 20 |
18 | Lecce | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 40 | -25 | 20 |
19 | VeneziaVenezia | 22 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 16 |
20 | Monza | 22 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 13 |
> Serie A Full Table |