Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 56.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 20.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.91%) and 0-2 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-0 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
Result | ||
Spezia | Draw | Roma |
20.73% ( 0.01) | 22.46% ( -0.02) | 56.82% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 54.61% ( 0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.56% ( 0.08) | 44.44% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.19% ( 0.07) | 66.81% ( -0.07) |
Spezia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.57% ( 0.05) | 35.43% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.81% ( 0.05) | 72.19% ( -0.05) |
Roma Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.57% ( 0.03) | 15.42% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.74% ( 0.06) | 44.25% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Spezia | Draw | Roma |
1-0 @ 5.67% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.5% ( 0) 2-0 @ 2.94% ( -0) 3-1 @ 1.9% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0) Other @ 1.92% Total : 20.73% | 1-1 @ 10.59% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.47% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.45% | 0-1 @ 10.21% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0) 0-2 @ 9.55% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 6.17% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 5.95% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.88% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.78% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.5% ( 0) 1-5 @ 1.08% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 2.55% Total : 56.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Napoli | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 47 |
2 | Inter Milan | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 46 | 15 | 31 | 43 |
3 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 20 | 23 | 42 |
4 | Lazio | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
5 | Juventus | 19 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 33 |
6 | Fiorentina | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 32 |
7 | Bologna | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 29 |
8 | AC Milan | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 28 |
9 | Udinese | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 26 |
10 | Roma | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 24 |
11 | Genoa | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 23 |
12 | Torino | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 22 |
13 | Empoli | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 20 |
14 | Lecce | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 32 | -18 | 20 |
15 | Parma | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 19 |
16 | Como | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 19 |
17 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 24 | 44 | -20 | 19 |
18 | CagliariCagliari | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 18 |
19 | VeneziaVenezia | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
20 | Monza | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 10 |
> Serie A Full Table |