The MLS wild card round concludes on Wednesday at Children's Mercy Park as Sporting Kansas City host the San Jose Earthquakes for a place in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.
A 3-1 win over Minnesota United, combined with a Portland Timbers loss versus the Houston Dynamo (3-1), enabled Sporting to finish eighth in the West, ahead of the Quakes with more wins (12-10), while San Jose played to a 1-1 draw with Austin FC.
Match preview
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It has been said countless times that it is not how you start but how you finish, and that rings true for Kansas City this season as they went winless in their opening 10 league fixtures but captured three of their final four.
Peter Vermes's men have come a long way over the past few months domestically, claiming 41 points since the beginning of May, with 12 victories, becoming the first side in MLS history to make the playoffs despite going winless in their opening 10 games.
Sporting have scored at least three goals in 10 of their last 22 home fixtures in the regular season since August 2022, winning each of those encounters.
Wednesday will be their first appearance in the post-season since 2021 with KC winning just one of their previous three playoff fixtures at Children's Mercy Park, defeating the Vancouver Whitecaps in the opening round two years ago (3-1).
They will enter the wild card round unbeaten in 13 successive home matches played in October, a run which dates back to 2015.
Some strong starts have proved decisive for SKC over this domestic campaign, with this team scoring 30 goals in the opening half this season, the most in MLS.
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Even though they have rather stumbled their way into a playoff position, with four successive 1-1 draws to end the regular season, the Quakes' opening campaign under Luchi Gonzalez has been hugely successful.
In 2023, the Goonies claimed 44 points with the former Dallas boss at the helm, a nine-point improvement from a year ago and their best regular-season total since 2019 (44).
Wednesday will be their first playoff appearance since the shortened 2020 season, as the club seek a first post-season triumph since 2012 (1-0 win over the Los Angeles Galaxy).
Throughout the regular season, the Goonies were a lot tidier at the back compared to what we saw in past campaigns, conceding 43 goals in 34 league fixtures this year, 26 fewer than in 2022 and the fewest for them in a single regular season since 2016 (40).
They were somewhat susceptible defensively in their last two post-season appearances, however, losing 5-0 at the Vancouver Whitecaps in 2017 and playing SKC to a 3-3 draw in 2020, eventually losing that match on penalties.
San Jose are winless in nine successive visits to Children's Mercy Park in all competitions, with their last victory in Kansas City occurring in 2015 (5-0).
Team News
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Tim Leibold missed the previous match for Sporting due to a groin strain, Kayden Pierre was sidelined with a sore hamstring and Kortne Ford is out for the season after undergoing Achilles surgery.
Johnny Russell has three goals in his last two games, notching a brace on Decision Day, with Remi Walter picking up the other one.
Daniel Salloi set up two of those goals, putting him at 18 assists in the regular season, while Alan Pulido has not scored at home since September 2 (two goals in a 2-1 win over St Louis City).
Tim Melia has won eight of his last 11 starts between the sticks for this team but has not registered a clean sheet since September 16 (1-0 win over Minnesota United), while Willy Agada has nine goals in nine career starts at Children's Mercy Park since joining the team in 2022.
The Quakes will be without JT Marcinkowski who has an issue with his knee, while Nathan is out for the remainder of the year because of an ACL injury.
Cristian Espinoza netted the only goal of the game for San Jose on Saturday, his team-leading 13th in MLS this year, having contributed to 66.7% of their goals domestically in 2023, while Jeremy Ebobisse picked up his fourth assist of the domestic campaign and 16th of his MLS career.
Paul Marie was the last Quakes player not named Espinoza or Ebobisse to find the back of the net for them in MLS, scoring the equaliser in their 1-1 draw with Minnesota United in September, while Daniel has conceded a goal or fewer in four straight games with his last domestic clean sheet coming in September versus DC United (0-0).
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Davis, Rosero, Fontas, Ndenbe; Walter, R. Espinoza, Thommy; Russell, Pulido, Salloi
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Daniel; Marie, Rodrigues, Mensah, Trauco; Yueill, Tsakiris; C. Espinoza, Monteiro, Cowell; Ebobisse
We say: Sporting Kansas City 3-1 San Jose Earthquakes
Sporting should be accustomed to these one-off games by now, having played in so many must-win situations down the stretch of this season.
They have been potent in the attacking third at home, and are in much better form when compared to the Quakes, both of which have us leaning towards the home side advancing.
How to watch
You can watch Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 56.44%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 20.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 0-1 (5.94%).
