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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 12
Oct 21, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
2 - 1
Aberystwyth

O'Rourke (20'), Marsh-Hughes (73')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Litchfield (81')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Aberystwyth Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Caernarfon 2-0 Flint Town
Friday, October 14 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Aberystwyth Town

All competitions
Last Game: Aberystwyth 2-1 Haverfordwest
Friday, October 14 at 8pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 44.82%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 29.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawAberystwyth Town
44.82% (-0.584 -0.58) 25.45% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05) 29.73% (0.632 0.63)
Both teams to score 54.05% (0.533 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.48% (0.521 0.52)49.51% (-0.523 -0.52)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.45% (0.467 0.47)71.54% (-0.47 -0.47)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.93% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)22.06% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.59% (-0.072999999999993 -0.07)55.41% (0.07 0.07)
Aberystwyth Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.35% (0.723 0.72)30.65% (-0.725 -0.73)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.11% (0.848 0.85)66.89% (-0.84999999999999 -0.85)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 44.81%
    Aberystwyth Town 29.73%
    Draw 25.44%
Caernarfon TownDrawAberystwyth Town
1-0 @ 10.21% (-0.24 -0.24)
2-1 @ 9.13% (-0.038 -0.04)
2-0 @ 7.72% (-0.188 -0.19)
3-1 @ 4.6% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-0 @ 3.89% (-0.101 -0.1)
3-2 @ 2.72% (0.039 0.04)
4-1 @ 1.74% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.47% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.03% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 44.81%
1-1 @ 12.08% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 6.76% (-0.145 -0.15)
2-2 @ 5.4% (0.085 0.09)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.44%
0-1 @ 8% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.15% (0.123 0.12)
0-2 @ 4.73% (0.087 0.09)
1-3 @ 2.82% (0.103 0.1)
2-3 @ 2.13% (0.075 0.08)
0-3 @ 1.86% (0.07 0.07)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 29.73%

Head to Head
Apr 1, 2022 7.45pm
Caernarfon
1-0
Aberystwyth
Morris (71' pen.)
Harrison (28')

Davies (31'), Veale (45'), Jenkins (71'), Orford (72'), Thorn (73')
Dec 17, 2021 7.45pm
Caernarfon
3-3
Aberystwyth
Evans (10'), John Williams (25'), Gosset (68')
Donohue (4'), John Williams (33'), Ojrzynski (58'), Cartwright (90')
Franklin (28'), Jones (59' pen., 62')
Davies (78')
Oct 9, 2021 2.30pm
Aberystwyth
0-1
Caernarfon

Rimmer (6'), (39'), (64')
Thomas (17')
French (19'), (31'), (32')
Mar 6, 2021 2.30pm
Caernarfon
2-2
Aberystwyth
Bickerstaff (84'), Bradley (88')
Kenny (52'), (54'), (89'), (90+4'), (90+5')
Owen (40'), Jenkins (90+5')
Williams (44'), Owen (78')
Dec 15, 2020 7.45pm
Aberystwyth
1-2
Caernarfon
Williams (88')
Davies (49'), Hewitt (64'), Bradford (90+2'), Rimmer (90+4')
Kenny (21'), Thomas (44')
Hayes (74'), Thomas (83')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
Championship Round
1The New SaintsNew Saints25200569274260
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont25156443222151
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest25129433141945
4Cardiff MUCardiff MU2511593734338
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon2511593938138
6Bala TownBala Town2571173229332
Relegation Round
1Barry Town UnitedBarry2510783841-337
2Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay2585123429529
3Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2582153251-1926
4Briton Ferry2574143850-1225
5Newtown AFCNewtown2556142750-2321
6Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2552182259-3717
 
Regular Season
1The New SaintsNew Saints22170561263551
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont22155242162650
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest22117429111840
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon2210483535034
5Bala TownBala Town2271142821732
6Cardiff MUCardiff MU229583229332
7Barry Town UnitedBarry228683238-630
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay2275103226626
9Briton Ferry2263133345-1221
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2262142747-2020
11Newtown AFCNewtown2254132446-2219
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2242161853-3514
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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