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World Cup
Australia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Nov 14, 2024 at 12am UK
 
Saudi Arabia national football team

Australia
vs.
Saudi Arabia

FT

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Australia and Saudi Arabia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Australia

All competitions
Last Game: Japan 1-1 Australia
Tuesday, October 15 at 11.35am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Next Game: Bahrain vs. Australia
Tuesday, November 19 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Saudi Arabia

All competitions
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 0-0 Bahrain
Tuesday, October 15 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Next Game: Indonesia vs. Saudi Arabia
Tuesday, November 19 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

We said: Australia 1-1 Saudi Arabia

 Both locked on five points after four matches and with the top-two race hotting up, we are expecting a cagey affair between Australia and Saudi Arabia on Thursday night. The Green Falcons will be desperate to record a victory during Renard's first match back at the helm, although we feel that the Socceroos should be good enough to force a share of the spoils in Melbourne. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 37.49%. A win for Australia had a probability of 36.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (6.36%). The likeliest Australia win was 1-0 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
AustraliaDrawSaudi Arabia
36.28% (-0.193 -0.19) 26.22% (0.052 0.05) 37.49% (0.139 0.14)
Both teams to score 53.47% (-0.186 -0.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.86% (-0.234 -0.23)51.14% (0.23399999999999 0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.01% (-0.206 -0.21)72.98% (0.203 0.2)
Australia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.77% (-0.223 -0.22)27.22% (0.221 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.36% (-0.291 -0.29)62.64% (0.291 0.29)
Saudi Arabia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.47% (-0.031000000000006 -0.03)26.52% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.27% (-0.038999999999994 -0.04)61.72% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Australia 36.28%
    Saudi Arabia 37.49%
    Draw 26.21%
AustraliaDrawSaudi Arabia
1-0 @ 9.4% (0.029 0.03)
2-1 @ 8.11% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
2-0 @ 6.11% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.52% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.65% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-2 @ 2.33% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.14% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 3.02%
Total : 36.28%
1-1 @ 12.46% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 7.22% (0.067 0.07)
2-2 @ 5.38% (-0.027 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.03% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.21%
0-1 @ 9.58% (0.081000000000001 0.08)
1-2 @ 8.27% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
0-2 @ 6.36% (0.048 0.05)
1-3 @ 3.66% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-3 @ 2.81% (0.019 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.38% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.21% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
0-4 @ 0.93% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 37.49%

How you voted: Australia vs Saudi Arabia

Australia
57.1%
Draw
29.6%
Saudi Arabia
13.3%
98
Head to Head
Mar 29, 2022 7pm
Third Round
Saudi Arabia
1-0
Australia
Al-Dawsari (65' pen.)
> Preview
Nov 11, 2021 9.10am
Third Round
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Saudi Arabia
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Al Amri (57'), Albulayhi (62')
> Preview
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