Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 48.83%. A win for Romania had a probability of 28.64% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.2%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Romania win was 1-2 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
