Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malta win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Cyprus had a probability of 36.86% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malta win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.18%) and 2-0 (5.24%). The likeliest Cyprus win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malta would win this match.