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Serie A | Gameweek 30
Mar 30, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Milan logo

Fiorentina
1 - 2
AC Milan

Duncan (50')
Biraghi (13'), Martinez (24')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Loftus-Cheek (47'), Leao (53')
Thiaw (21'), Tomori (89'), Loftus-Cheek (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Fiorentina 1-1 M. Haifa
Thursday, March 14 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League

We said: Fiorentina 2-2 AC Milan

Only one of the last 12 league matches between Fiorentina and Milan have ended in a draw, but that could be the outcome this weekend. The Viola will come up just shy of recording three straight home wins over the Rossoneri for a first time since the 1970s, but even one point would be welcome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.47%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 30.55% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
FiorentinaDrawAC Milan
45.47% (0.0089999999999932 0.01) 23.98% (0.0019999999999989 0) 30.55% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 59.49% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.41% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)42.59% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)64.99% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.06%18.94% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.55%50.45% (0.0020000000000024 0)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.39% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)26.61% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.16% (-0.012 -0.01)61.84% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Fiorentina 45.47%
    AC Milan 30.55%
    Draw 23.98%
FiorentinaDrawAC Milan
2-1 @ 9.24% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-0 @ 8.39% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 6.98% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-1 @ 5.12% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-0 @ 3.87% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 3.39%
4-1 @ 2.13% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 1.61%
4-2 @ 1.41%
Other @ 3.34%
Total : 45.47%
1-1 @ 11.1%
2-2 @ 6.11% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 5.04% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.5%
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.98%
1-2 @ 7.35% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-1 @ 6.67% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.42% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 3.24% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 2.7% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1.95% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
1-4 @ 1.07% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.15%
Total : 30.55%

How you voted: Fiorentina vs AC Milan

Fiorentina
22.1%
Draw
18.2%
AC Milan
59.7%
154
Head to Head
Nov 25, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
AC Milan
1-0
Fiorentina
Hernandez (45+2' pen.)
Tomori (56'), Pioli (77')

Arthur (12'), Parisi (45+1')
Mar 4, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 25
Fiorentina
2-1
AC Milan
Gonzalez (49' pen.), Jovic (87')
Hernandez (90+5')
Nov 13, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 15
AC Milan
2-1
Fiorentina
Leao (2'), Milenkovic (90+2' og.)
Barak (28')
May 1, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 35
AC Milan
1-0
Fiorentina
Leao (82')
Bennacer (88')

Maleh (2'), Venuti (42'), Martinez (72')
Nov 20, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
Fiorentina
4-3
AC Milan
Duncan (15'), Saponara (45+1'), Vlahovic (60', 85')
Castrovilli (90+5')
Ibrahimovic (62', 67'), Venuti (90+6' og.)
Hernandez (90+5')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CInter Milan33275179186186
2AC Milan34217664392570
3Juventus341811547262165
4Bologna331711548262262
5Roma33177959392058
6Lazio34174134335855
7Atalanta BCAtalanta321661059372254
8Napoli331310105041949
9Fiorentina32138114536947
10Torino33111393129246
11Monza341111123644-844
12Genoa33912123540-539
13Lecce34812143149-1836
14CagliariCagliari33711153656-2032
15Hellas VeronaHellas Verona34710173145-1431
16FrosinoneFrosinone34710174363-2031
17Empoli3387182648-2231
18Udinese33416133150-1928
19SassuoloSassuolo3368193965-2626
RSalernitana3429232673-4715


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