Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 67.3%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Perth Glory had a probability of 13.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.64%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.06%), while for a Perth Glory win it was 1-0 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
Result | ||
Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne City |
13.59% ( -0.15) | 19.12% ( -0.03) | 67.3% ( 0.18) |
Both teams to score 50.71% ( -0.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.89% ( -0.23) | 42.11% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.49% ( -0.23) | 64.51% ( 0.23) |
Perth Glory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.34% ( -0.37) | 42.66% ( 0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.99% ( -0.32) | 79.01% ( 0.32) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.44% ( -0.02) | 11.56% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.5% ( -0.04) | 36.5% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne City |
1-0 @ 4.2% 2-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 1.79% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.46% Total : 13.59% | 1-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.96% Total : 19.12% | 0-2 @ 11.48% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 10.64% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 8.26% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 7.03% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 4.45% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 3.79% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3% ( -0.04) 0-5 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.64% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.62% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.69% Total : 67.29% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 14 |
5 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
6 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 11 |
7 | Macarthur | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 11 |
8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 9 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 2 |
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