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Asian Cup
Bahrain national football team
Asian Cup | Round of 16
Jan 31, 2024 at 11.30am UK
Al Thumama Stadium
Japan national football team

Bahrain
1 - 3
Japan

Ueda (64' og.)
Yusuf (52'), Al Hayam (79')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Doan (31'), Kubo (49'), Ueda (72')
Maikuma (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Asian Cup clash between Bahrain and Japan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bahrain

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Jordan 0-1 Bahrain
Thursday, January 25 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

Japan

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Japan 3-1 Indonesia
Wednesday, January 24 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

We said: Bahrain 1-4 Japan

 Japan may not have been as convincing as we had expected in the opening phase of this tournament, but they know how to turn it on in these big games, and we expect them to be sharper in the attack, knowing it is a must-win game. Bahrain have held their own throughout this tournament, but their lack of experience in these big matches will make it difficult for them to stay with a side who possess numerous attacking options. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 38.43%. A win for Bahrain had a probability of 35.29% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Bahrain win was 1-0 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
BahrainDrawJapan
35.29% (-0.716 -0.72) 26.28% (-0.154 -0.15) 38.43% (0.86799999999999 0.87)
Both teams to score 53.18% (0.445 0.45)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.53% (0.594 0.59)51.46% (-0.595 -0.59)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.72% (0.515 0.52)73.27% (-0.515 -0.52)
Bahrain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.02% (-0.148 -0.15)27.97% (0.145 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.39% (-0.184 -0.18)63.61% (0.183 0.18)
Japan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.84% (0.767 0.77)26.15% (-0.769 -0.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.77% (1.017 1.02)61.23% (-1.019 -1.02)
Score Analysis
    Bahrain 35.29%
    Japan 38.43%
    Draw 26.28%
BahrainDrawJapan
1-0 @ 9.32% (-0.263 -0.26)
2-1 @ 7.96% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-0 @ 5.94% (-0.193 -0.19)
3-1 @ 3.38% (-0.048 -0.05)
3-0 @ 2.52% (-0.092 -0.09)
3-2 @ 2.27% (0.017 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.08% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 35.29%
1-1 @ 12.5% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-0 @ 7.32% (-0.176 -0.18)
2-2 @ 5.34% (0.062 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.01% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.28%
0-1 @ 9.81% (-0.019 -0.02)
1-2 @ 8.38% (0.131 0.13)
0-2 @ 6.58% (0.13 0.13)
1-3 @ 3.75% (0.138 0.14)
0-3 @ 2.94% (0.121 0.12)
2-3 @ 2.39% (0.079 0.08)
1-4 @ 1.26% (0.073 0.07)
0-4 @ 0.99% (0.06 0.06)
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 38.43%

How you voted: 1st Group E vs 2nd Group D

1st Group E
27.6%
Draw
10.3%
2nd Group D
62.1%
58
rhs 2.0
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