Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 71.98%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 11.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 1-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a Bahia win it was 1-2 (3.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.