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Attendance: 30,551
Brighton logo
Premier League | Gameweek 23
Jan 18, 2020 at 3pm UK
 
Aston Villa logo

1-1

Trossard (38')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Grealish (75')

Preview: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Aston Villa - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews the Premier League meeting between Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa at the Amex Stadium on Saturday, including predictions and team news.

Brighton & Hove Albion welcome Aston Villa to the American Express Community Stadium on Saturday, with both sides looking to move away from the relegation zone.

Brighton have improved with the ball under Graham Potter but remain just three points clear of the bottom three, while Villa sit 18th, one point adrift of safety.


Match preview

Brighton & Hove Albion's Aaron Mooy celebrates scoring their second goal on December 28, 2019© Reuters

Brighton come into this match off the back of a poor run of form, having picked up just five points from their last six Premier League matches.

A 1-0 defeat last time out against Everton at Goodison Park was the latest match in a difficult run for the Seagulls, during which they faced Tottenham Hotspur, Sheffield United and Chelsea.

However, Brighton's home form has been a strong point this season, with the South coast side picking up four wins and four draws at the Amex.

A win could see Potter's side climb as high as 13th, but a defeat could see them fall into the drop zone.

Villa too come into this match off the back of a loss after they were beaten 6-1 at home by Manchester City.

It was a chastening result for Dean Smith's side, who had won two of their past three matches before the visit of the champions.

A key issue for the Villans this season has been their form on the road, picking up just seven points away from Villa Park in the league.

The Midlands side have already beaten Brighton twice this season though, winning 3-1 at the Amex in the EFL Cup and securing a 2-1 win in the Premier League reverse fixture.

Brighton competition form: DLLWDL
Brighton form (all competitions): LLWDLL

Aston Villa competition form: LLWLWL
Aston Villa form (all competitions): WLWLDL


Team News

Wesley Moraes celebrates scoring for Aston Villa on October 5, 2019© Reuters

Brighton will hope to have Aaron Mooy fit after he missed their trip to Everton, while Alireza Jahanbakhsh and Shane Duffy should be fine to play following scares during the week.

Jose Izquierdo and Dan Burn will miss the match, but could return as early as next month.

Aston Villa remain in the midst of an injury crisis, with Wesley and Tom Heaton both ruled out until August.

John McGinn is still out but could return as soon as late February, while Matt Targett could make his return this weekend.

Finally, new signing Pepe Reina should make his debut after securing his loan move from AC Milan.

Brighton possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Webster, Duffy, Dunk; Montoya, Stephens, Propper, Bernardo; Mooy, Maupay, Trossard

Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Reina; Elmohamady, Mings, Ngoyo, Taylor; Nakamba, Drinkwater, Hourihane; Grealish, El Ghazi, Trezeguet


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Brighton 1-1 Aston Villa

Both sides come into this fixture low on confidence and with injuries blighting their squads. As a result, expect a close, cagey affair, with neither side quite able to create enough chances to force a winner.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 52.56%. A win for had a probability of 25.17% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%).


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8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
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