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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 25
Mar 18, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Signal Iduna Park
Koln logo

Dortmund
6 - 1
FC Koln

Guerreiro (15'), Haller (17', 69'), Reus (32', 70'), Malen (36')
Dahoud (66')
FT(HT: 4-1)
Selke (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and FC Koln, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Schalke 2-2 Dortmund
Saturday, March 11 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

FC Koln

All competitions
Last Game: FC Koln 0-2 VfL Bochum
Friday, March 10 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 FC Koln

 With both teams missing several key players due to injury, we do not expect either side to be at their best on Saturday, especially having suffered disappointing results last weekend. However, Dortmund should be able to gain a marginal victory to ensure that they move one point above Bayern prior to their fixture against Leverkusen on Sunday, with Koln needing to pick themselves up after the international break. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 67.98%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for FC Koln had a probability of 14.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 1-0 (7.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.94%), while for a FC Koln win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawFC Koln
67.98% (0.46299999999999 0.46) 17.65% (-0.303 -0.3) 14.37% (-0.157 -0.16)
Both teams to score 58.44% (0.755 0.76)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.81% (1.149 1.15)33.19% (-1.147 -1.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.05% (1.306 1.31)54.94% (-1.306 -1.31)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.05% (0.411 0.41)8.94% (-0.41 -0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.46% (0.98 0.98)30.53% (-0.978 -0.98)
FC Koln Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.18% (0.543 0.54)35.82% (-0.543 -0.54)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.4% (0.553 0.55)72.6% (-0.55200000000001 -0.55)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 67.98%
    FC Koln 14.37%
    Draw 17.65%
Borussia DortmundDrawFC Koln
2-1 @ 9.59% (-0.072999999999999 -0.07)
2-0 @ 9.34% (-0.211 -0.21)
1-0 @ 7.73% (-0.324 -0.32)
3-1 @ 7.71% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
3-0 @ 7.51% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-1 @ 4.66% (0.137 0.14)
4-0 @ 4.54% (0.068000000000001 0.07)
3-2 @ 3.96% (0.101 0.1)
4-2 @ 2.39% (0.104 0.1)
5-1 @ 2.25% (0.106 0.11)
5-0 @ 2.19% (0.073 0.07)
5-2 @ 1.15% (0.071 0.07)
6-1 @ 0.91% (0.059 0.06)
Other @ 4.06%
Total : 67.98%
1-1 @ 7.94% (-0.212 -0.21)
2-2 @ 4.92% (0.035 0.04)
0-0 @ 3.2% (-0.198 -0.2)
3-3 @ 1.36% (0.054 0.05)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 17.65%
1-2 @ 4.08% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
0-1 @ 3.29% (-0.151 -0.15)
0-2 @ 1.69% (-0.052 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.68% (0.037 0.04)
1-3 @ 1.4% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 14.37%

How you voted: Dortmund vs FC Koln

Borussia Dortmund
84.8%
Draw
10.5%
FC Koln
4.8%
105
Head to Head
Oct 1, 2022 2.30pm
FC Koln
3-2
Dortmund
Kainz (53'), Tigges (56'), Ljubicic (71')
Hubers (21')
Brandt (31'), Schmitz (78' og.)
Mar 20, 2022 6.30pm
FC Koln
1-1
Dortmund
Andersson (36')
Ozcan (67'), Duda (76')
Wolf (8')
Wolf (30'), Witsel (43'), Can (47')
Oct 30, 2021 2.30pm
Dortmund
2-0
FC Koln
Hazard (40'), Tigges (64')
Meunier (51'), Bellingham (88')

Schmitz (11'), Hubers (56'), Ozcan (82')
Mar 20, 2021 2.30pm
FC Koln
2-2
Dortmund
Duda (35' pen.), Jakobs (65')
Jakobs (90+2')
Braut Haaland (3', 90')
Bellingham (34')
Nov 28, 2020 2.30pm
Dortmund
1-2
FC Koln
Hazard (74')
Can (54')
Skhiri (9', 60')
Skhiri (29'), Jakobs (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern16123148133539
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen16105140231735
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1693436231330
4RB Leipzig169342822630
5Mainz 05Mainz1684430201028
6Freiburg168352426-227
7Stuttgart167543025526
8Borussia DortmundDortmund167453025525
9Werder Bremen167452829-125
10Wolfsburg167363328524
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach167362521424
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin164571421-717
13Augsburg164481733-1616
14St Pauli1642101220-814
15Hoffenheim163582029-914
16Heidenheim1641112033-1313
17Holstein Kiel1622122141-208
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1613121337-246
> Bundesliga Full Table


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