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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 55.81%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 23.46% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.14%) and 1-3 (6.74%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 2-1 (5.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
Result | ||
Hoffenheim | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
23.46% ( 0.2) | 20.72% ( -0.02) | 55.81% ( -0.18) |
Both teams to score 64.78% ( 0.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.15% ( 0.33) | 32.84% ( -0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.45% ( 0.38) | 54.54% ( -0.38) |
Hoffenheim Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.51% ( 0.34) | 26.49% ( -0.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.32% ( 0.45) | 61.68% ( -0.45) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.12% ( 0.05) | 11.87% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.82% ( 0.12) | 37.17% ( -0.12) |
Score Analysis |
Hoffenheim | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
2-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.79% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 2.78% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.62% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.03% Total : 23.46% | 1-1 @ 8.9% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.3% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.15% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.39% Total : 20.72% | 1-2 @ 9.49% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.14% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 6.74% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.7% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 5.07% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 4.48% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 3.59% ( 0) 0-4 @ 2.7% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 2.38% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 1.53% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) 2-5 @ 1.02% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 55.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 58 | 16 | 42 | 48 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 46 | 26 | 20 | 42 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 26 | 18 | 37 |
4 | Stuttgart | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 28 | 8 | 32 |
5 | RB Leipzig | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 32 |
6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 23 | 10 | 31 |
7 | Wolfsburg | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 28 |
8 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 27 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 27 |
10 | Freiburg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 27 |
11 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 26 |
12 | Augsburg | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 25 |
13 | St Pauli | 19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 20 |
14 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 20 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 18 |
16 | Heidenheim | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 14 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 48 | -20 | 12 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 10 |
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