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Bundesliga | Gameweek 12
Nov 29, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Millerntor-Stadion

St Pauli
3 - 1
Holstein Kiel

Saliakas (25'), Guilavogui (56'), Eggestein (85')
Smith (38'), Afolayan (86')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Harres (90+1')
Rapp (0'), Holtby (23'), Machino (23'), Ivezic (27'), Becker (38'), Erras (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between St Pauli and Holstein Kiel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Borussia M'bach 2-0 St Pauli
Sunday, November 24 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Holstein Kiel 0-3 Mainz
Sunday, November 24 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: St Pauli 0-0 Holstein Kiel

Neither side will want to overcommit, and this could lead to a stale and timid encounter on Friday despite the importance of the match. Additionally, St Pauli have struggled for goals while Holstein Kiel have been poor away from home, and it would not be surprising if the points were shared. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
St PauliDrawHolstein Kiel
44.98% (-0.264 -0.26) 23.99% (0.032 0.03) 31.03% (0.232 0.23)
Both teams to score 59.71% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.58% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)42.41% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.18% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)64.82% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
St Pauli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.93% (-0.126 -0.13)19.07% (0.126 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.33% (-0.20999999999999 -0.21)50.67% (0.211 0.21)
Holstein Kiel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.78% (0.12599999999999 0.13)26.22% (-0.126 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.68% (0.169 0.17)61.32% (-0.169 -0.17)
Score Analysis
    St Pauli 44.98%
    Holstein Kiel 31.03%
    Draw 23.99%
St PauliDrawHolstein Kiel
2-1 @ 9.19% (-0.023999999999999 -0.02)
1-0 @ 8.29% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
2-0 @ 6.86% (-0.043 -0.04)
3-1 @ 5.08% (-0.033 -0.03)
3-0 @ 3.79% (-0.039 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.4% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.1% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.57% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.41% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 44.98%
1-1 @ 11.09% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.15% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 5% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.52% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.99%
1-2 @ 7.42% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
0-1 @ 6.69% (0.036 0.04)
0-2 @ 4.48% (0.04 0.04)
1-3 @ 3.31% (0.029 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.75% (0.013 0.01)
0-3 @ 2% (0.025 0.03)
1-4 @ 1.11% (0.014 0.01)
2-4 @ 0.92% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 31.03%

How you voted: St Pauli vs Holstein Kiel

St Pauli
50.0%
Draw
37.9%
Holstein Kiel
12.1%
66
Head to Head
Feb 23, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 23
Holstein Kiel
3-4
St Pauli
Machino (53'), Mees (65'), Bernhardsson (82')
Schulz (45')
Afolayan (11', 36'), Hartel (34'), Metcalfe (57')
Saliakas (90+4'), Hurzeler (90+5')
Sep 17, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 6
St Pauli
5-1
Holstein Kiel
Metcalfe (4'), Smith (7'), Afolayan (38'), Ritzka (69'), Hartel (90+3')
Hurzeler (0'), Smith (27'), Burchert (45+2'), Saad (49')
Holtby (50')
Porath (16'), Holtby (47'), Rothe (73')
May 19, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 33
Holstein Kiel
3-4
St Pauli
Skrzybski (28' pen.), Komenda (78'), Reese (90+3')
Becker (45+2'), Rapp (46'), Bartels (65'), Pichler (90+5'), Wahl (90+9')
Afolayan (39'), Wahl (53' og.), Daschner (61'), Paqarada (74')
Hurzeler (0'), Afolayan (77')
Afolayan (87')
Nov 8, 2022 5.30pm
Dec 17, 2021 5.30pm
Gameweek 18
Holstein Kiel
3-0
St Pauli
Bartels (8'), Porath (29'), Pichler (45+1')
Thesker (56'), Arp (90')

Ziereis (56'), Paqarada (80'), Dittgen (86'), Ole Becker (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern20163162194351
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen20136149272245
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt20115445271838
4RB Leipzig209653429533
5Stuttgart209563730732
6Mainz 05Mainz209473324931
7Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach209383230230
8Werder Bremen208663436-230
9Freiburg209382736-930
10Wolfsburg208574335829
11Borussia DortmundDortmund208573634229
12Augsburg207582435-1126
13St Pauli2063111822-421
14Union BerlinUnion Berlin205691627-1121
15Hoffenheim2046102640-1418
16Heidenheim2042142542-1714
17Holstein Kiel2033143152-2112
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum2024141744-2710


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