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Champions League header

Champions League
Napoli logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 12, 2022 at 5.45pm UK
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Ajax

Napoli
4 - 2
Ajax

Lozano (4'), Raspadori (16'), Kvaratskhelia (62' pen.), Osimhen (90')
Jesus (87'), Osimhen (90+1'), Politano (90+2')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Klaassen (49'), Bergwijn (83' pen.)
Taylor (27'), Sanchez (33'), Alvarez (52'), Maduro (61'), Bassey (66'), Bergwijn (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Napoli and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Cremonese 1-4 Napoli
Sunday, October 9 at 5pm in Serie A

Ajax

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Volendam 2-4 Ajax
Saturday, October 8 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie

We said: Napoli 2-1 Ajax

 Having now won eight times in a row for the first time in club history, Napoli's confidence could not be higher. However, Ajax still bear the scars from last week and will take care not to make the same mistakes again, so it could be a closer contest this time between two attractive sides. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 38.25% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.73%) and 0-2 (4.89%). The likeliest Napoli win was 2-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
NapoliDrawAjax
38.25% (-0.164 -0.16) 22.66% (0.012 0.01) 39.09% (0.14700000000001 0.15)
Both teams to score 66.73% (-0.063999999999993 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.94% (-0.078000000000003 -0.08)34.06% (0.075000000000003 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.07% (-0.090000000000003 -0.09)55.93% (0.086999999999996 0.09)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.51% (-0.108 -0.11)18.49% (0.104 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.29% (-0.181 -0.18)49.71% (0.178 0.18)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.88% (0.027000000000001 0.03)18.13% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.92% (0.053000000000004 0.05)49.08% (-0.056000000000004 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Napoli 38.25%
    Ajax 39.09%
    Draw 22.66%
NapoliDrawAjax
2-1 @ 8.15% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
1-0 @ 5.66% (0.0040000000000004 0)
2-0 @ 4.77% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.59% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.92% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-0 @ 2.69% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.94% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.65% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.13% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-3 @ 0.94% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 38.25%
1-1 @ 9.66% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.96% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.35% (0.013 0.01)
3-3 @ 2.23% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.45%
Total : 22.66%
1-2 @ 8.25% (0.022 0.02)
0-1 @ 5.73% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 4.89% (0.029 0.03)
1-3 @ 4.7% (0.017 0.02)
2-3 @ 3.96% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 2.78% (0.019 0.02)
1-4 @ 2.01% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.69% (0.002 0)
0-4 @ 1.19% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-4 @ 0.95% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.94%
Total : 39.09%

How you voted: Napoli vs Ajax

Napoli
81.0%
Draw
10.7%
Ajax
8.3%
447
Head to Head
Oct 4, 2022 8pm
Group A
Ajax
1-6
Napoli
Kudus (9')
Raspadori (18', 47'), Di Lorenzo (33'), Zielinski (45'), Kvaratskhelia (63'), Simeone (81')
Raspadori (21')
rhs 2.0
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