MX23RW : Friday, January 10 20:11:00| >> :60:53:53:

How is the Premier League's top-four race shaping up?

How is the Premier League's top-four race shaping up?
© Reuters
One of Leicester, Chelsea and Liverpool will miss out.

Just three points cover Leicester, Chelsea and Liverpool going into a decisive final week of the race for Champions League places.

While the Foxes and Blues, who hold the final two qualifying places, were otherwise occupied with the FA Cup final this weekend – they meet again on Tuesday – fifth-placed Liverpool kept themselves in touch with goalkeeper Alisson Becker's dramatic late winner against West Brom.

Here, the PA news agency looks at the state of play with two matches remaining and how it continues the trend of recent seasons.

The run-in

Premier League table
One wins separates third place from fifth in the Premier League (PA graphic)

Cup winners Leicester hold third place on 66 points, two ahead of Chelsea going into Tuesday's rematch.

Liverpool are only a further point behind as they prepare to face Burnley on Wednesday, knowing a win would leave them in the top four whatever Tuesday's outcome at Stamford Bridge.

Sunday's final round of fixtures then sees Chelsea travel to Aston Villa, while Leicester and Liverpool have home games against Tottenham and Crystal Palace respectively.

Leicester can clinch their place with a win on Tuesday and, while the permutations beyond that can get complicated, any of the three teams winning both their games will guarantee Champions League football. One win for either Chelsea or Liverpool would end the slim hopes of Tottenham and West Ham, both currently four points behind the Reds.

Top-four drama outlives title fight

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola lifts the Premier League trophy
Pep Guardiola's Manchester City have again won the title with games to spare (Martin Rickett/PA)

Looking at the last 10 Premier League seasons plus this one, there is a clear trend in the standings at this stage.

For the fifth year in a row, the teams ranked third, fourth and fifth with two games to go are covered by four points or fewer. In 2015-16 it was seven points but with fifth-placed Manchester United having a game in hand, with Champions League places again still at stake on the final day.

In contrast, 2010-11, 2013-14 and 2014-15 all witnessed a nine-point spread in those spots with two games to play.

The closer European races have largely coincided with one team pulling away to win the title comfortably – only in 2018-19 has top spot not been decided by this stage, and even then the top two finished 25 points clear of the pack.

Leicester won the league with two games to spare in 2015-16, as did Chelsea the following season, with the pair eventually finishing 10 and seven points clear respectively.

Manchester City and Liverpool's battle to the wire in 2018-19 was sandwiched between the two clubs' respective romps to the title, leaving only the remaining seats at Europe's top table to play for.

Last season was the closest of all, with Chelsea third on 63 points after 36 games and Leicester and Manchester United one behind.

A draw for United was the only change in gameweek 37, lifting them to third and leaving the three teams separated by a point, and they and Chelsea finished with wins while another defeat for Leicester left them on the outside looking in.

Tottenham went into the previous season's final game three points ahead of fifth-placed rivals Arsenal – five points had covered the teams from third through to sixth with two games to go. Spurs drew their last game with Everton to stay fourth by a point – goal difference was also in their favour as insurance.

Chelsea were only two points behind with a game left in 2018, though defeat to Newcastle saw a bigger gap in the final table, while in the two seasons before that three teams were covered by one win going into the deciding games – Arsenal missed out by a point in 2017 and United on goal difference the previous year.

ID:447917: cacheID:447917:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:restore:8408:
Written by
P A
Restore Data
Share this article now:
Chelsea forward Tammy Abraham pictured in February 2021
Read Next:
Thomas Tuchel refusing to discuss Tammy Abraham future
>
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool19144147192846
2Arsenal20117239182140
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest20124429191040
4Chelsea20106439241536
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle20105534221235
6Manchester CityMan City2010463627934
7Bournemouth209653023733
8Aston Villa209563032-232
9Fulham207943027330
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton2061043029128
11Brentford208393835327
12Tottenham HotspurSpurs20731042301224
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd206592328-523
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham206592439-1523
15Crystal Palace204972128-721
16Everton193881525-1017
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves2044123145-1416
18Ipswich TownIpswich2037102035-1516
19Leicester CityLeicester2035122344-2114
20Southampton2013161244-326


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!