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Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League | Gameweek 13
Jan 10, 2025 at 8.35am UK
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Western United

Victory
3 - 4
Western Utd

Hamill (9'), Fornaroli (39'), Santos Rodrigus (79')
Traore (56'), Arzani (56'), Bos (56'), Bos (88')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Ibusuki (17', 90+5'), Walatee (69'), Botic (90+1')
Thurgate (24'), Garuccio (57'), Grimaldi (90+2'), Botic (90+3')
Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Western United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Victory 2-2 Western Sydney
Saturday, January 4 at 8.35am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Melbourne City 2-0 Western Utd
Tuesday, January 7 at 7am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 51.37%. A win for Western United had a probability of 26.14% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawWestern United
51.37% (0.088999999999999 0.09) 22.49% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02) 26.14% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)
Both teams to score 61.34% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.33% (0.024000000000001 0.02)38.67% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.03% (0.024999999999999 0.02)60.97% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.77% (0.040000000000006 0.04)15.23% (-0.039 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.1% (0.075000000000003 0.08)43.89% (-0.073 -0.07)
Western United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.36% (-0.040000000000006 -0.04)27.63% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.82% (-0.050000000000004 -0.05)63.18% (0.050999999999995 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 51.37%
    Western United 26.14%
    Draw 22.49%
Melbourne VictoryDrawWestern United
2-1 @ 9.59% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.92% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 7.45% (0.012 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.01% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
3-0 @ 4.68% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.87% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 2.83% (0.008 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.2% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.82% (0.004 0)
5-1 @ 1.06% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.94%
Total : 51.37%
1-1 @ 10.18% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.16% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-0 @ 4.21% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.66% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 22.49%
1-2 @ 6.55% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.41% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.48% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.81% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.64% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-3 @ 1.49% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-4 @ 0.9% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 26.14%

How you voted: Victory vs Western Utd

Melbourne Victory
40.0%
Draw
30.0%
Western United
30.0%
10
Head to Head
Dec 1, 2024 5am
Gameweek 6
Western Utd
1-3
Victory
Botic (19')
Machach (8'), Vergos (48'), Fornaroli (69')
Mar 14, 2024 8am
Gameweek 21
Western Utd
2-2
Victory
Penha (43'), Garuccio (90')
Imai (27'), Risdon (72')
Folami (70'), Ikonomidis (79')
Khelifi (53'), Miranda (72')
Feb 20, 2024 8am
Gameweek 12
Victory
2-1
Western Utd
Da Silva (90+5', 90+8')
Velupillay (13'), Fornaroli (90+8')
Penha (60')
Ruhs (17'), Imai (21')
Mar 13, 2023 7am
Gameweek 20
Victory
1-2
Western Utd
Fornaroli (50')
Botic (38'), Prijovic (69')
Dec 26, 2022 7am
rhs 2.0
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