Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 51.37%. A win for Western United had a probability of 26.14% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.