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Copa Libertadores WWW header

Copa Libertadores
Atletico Mineiro
Copa Libertadores | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Sep 25, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio da Madeira
Fluminense

Atletico Mineiro
2 - 0
Fluminense

Deyverson (50', 88')
Hulk (28'), Bernard (44'), Deyverson (63')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Fuentes (74'), Fabio (84'), Martinelli (90'), Arias (90+9')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Atletico Mineiro and Fluminense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Bragantino
Sunday, September 22 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Fluminense

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Fluminense 0-1 Botafogo
Saturday, September 21 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

We said: Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Fluminense (Atletico Mineiro advance on penalties)

 Mineiro have been sharp at home throughout this competition, while Flu have not shown the kind of potency we are used to seeing as the visitors, and in the end, we believe the goalkeeping of Galo will be massive and enable them to reverse this tie. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 49.27%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 24.12%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.46%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (8.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.

Result
Atletico MineiroDrawFluminense
49.27% (0.153 0.15) 26.6% (-0.029 -0.03) 24.12% (-0.129 -0.13)
Both teams to score 46.37% (-0.052 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.57% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)57.43% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.76% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)78.24% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Atletico Mineiro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.61% (0.067999999999998 0.07)23.39% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.62% (0.1 0.1)57.37% (-0.10299999999999 -0.1)
Fluminense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.53% (-0.123 -0.12)39.47% (0.119 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.83% (-0.114 -0.11)76.16% (0.10899999999999 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Mineiro 49.27%
    Fluminense 24.12%
    Draw 26.59%
Atletico MineiroDrawFluminense
1-0 @ 13.41% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 9.74% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.06% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 4.72% (0.029 0.03)
3-1 @ 4.39% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.04%
4-0 @ 1.71% (0.015 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.59% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 49.27%
1-1 @ 12.46% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 9.23% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-2 @ 4.21% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
Other @ 0.69%
Total : 26.59%
0-1 @ 8.58% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-2 @ 5.8% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 3.99% (-0.026 -0.03)
1-3 @ 1.8% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.31% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.24% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 1.42%
Total : 24.12%

How you voted: Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense

Atletico Mineiro
68.0%
Draw
20.0%
Fluminense
12.0%
25
Head to Head
Sep 18, 2024 11pm
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
Fluminense
1-0
Atletico Mineiro
Lima (87')
Lima (80'), Thiago (90'), Palacios (90+4')

Franco (78'), Marcelo (90+4')
> Preview
Aug 25, 2024 1am
Gameweek 24
Atletico Mineiro
0-2
Fluminense

Fuchs (23'), Lyanco (42'), Rubens (63'), Arana (78'), Paulinho (81')
Serna (23'), Arias (59')
Ganso (43'), Martinelli (71'), Menezes (74'), Fabio (90+3')
May 4, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 5
Fluminense
2-2
Atletico Mineiro
Cano (4'), Augusto (61')
Barbosa (12'), Arias (20'), Cano (31'), Melo (43'), Ganso (45+5')
Vargas (73', 79')
Jemerson (45+5'), Paulinho (51')
Oct 29, 2023 1am
Gameweek 30
Atletico Mineiro
2-0
Fluminense
Paulinho (62', 83')
Rubens (52'), Jemerson (59')

Lele (49'), Diniz (50')
Jun 22, 2023 1.30am
Gameweek 11
Fluminense
1-1
Atletico Mineiro
Xavier (45+1')
Diniz (0'), Andre (90+5'), Kennedy (90+8')
Diniz (90+10')
Guga (35' og.)
Hyoran (32'), Felipe Scolari (33'), Battaglia (89'), Arana (90+5'), Hulk (90')
> Preview
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