MX23RW : Sunday, January 5 21:12:32| >> :60:1913:1913:
Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 6, 2024 at 2am UK
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Medellin

Tolima
0 - 0
Medellin


Rovira (48')
FT

Manuel Orejuela (61')
Medellin win 4-2 on penalties
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Deportes Tolima and Independiente Medellin.

Form, Standings, Stats

Deportes Tolima

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Last Game: Tolima 3-1 Puerto Cabello
Wednesday, June 28 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Independiente Medellin

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Last Game: San Lorenzo 2-0 Medellin
Thursday, July 20 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportes Tolima win with a probability of 58.14%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 17.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Deportes Tolima win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.61%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.

Result
Deportes TolimaDrawIndependiente Medellin
58.14% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05) 23.92% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 17.95% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Both teams to score 45.63% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.92% (0.027000000000001 0.03)54.08% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.49% (0.021000000000001 0.02)75.5% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Deportes Tolima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.6% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)18.4% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.44% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)49.55% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Independiente Medellin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.92% (0.061 0.06)44.08% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.81% (0.049999999999997 0.05)80.19% (-0.048999999999992 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Deportes Tolima 58.13%
    Independiente Medellin 17.95%
    Draw 23.91%
Deportes TolimaDrawIndependiente Medellin
1-0 @ 13.73% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 11.61% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.52% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 6.56% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.37%
4-0 @ 2.77% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 2.27%
3-2 @ 2.2% (0.004 0)
5-0 @ 0.94% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 58.13%
1-1 @ 11.24%
0-0 @ 8.11% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.9% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 23.91%
0-1 @ 6.65% (0.0049999999999999 0)
1-2 @ 4.61% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.72% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.26% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 1.07% (0.004 0)
Other @ 1.65%
Total : 17.95%

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