Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 46.93%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 28.92% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (7.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for NAC Breda in this match.