Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 50.96%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 26.18% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.