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Willem II
FC Twente logo
Eredivisie | Gameweek 15
Dec 8, 2023 at 7pm UK
De Grolsch Veste
Excelsior

FC Twente
4 - 2
Excelsior

Ugalde (45'), van Wolfswinkel (59' pen., 80'), Taha (85')
Smal (67'), Propper (77')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Parrott (9'), Nieuwpoort (13')
Naujoks (24'), Dijkhuizen (25'), Driouech (26'), Horemans (57'), Nieuwpoort (59')
Zagre (24')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Eredivisie clash between FC Twente and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Go Ahead Eagles 1-3 FC Twente
Sunday, December 3 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: RKC Waalwijk 2-2 Excelsior
Saturday, December 2 at 7pm in Eredivisie

We said: FC Twente 2-1 SBV Excelsior

Apart from when PSV came to town at the end of last month, Twente are unbeaten at De Grolsch Veste this season and will be confident of adding three points to their tally on Friday. Excelsior were unconvincing during their stalemate at Waalwijk on the weekend, and we feel that the Kralingers' winless run in the Eredivisie will continue in Enschede. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 68.73%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 13.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 3-1 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.75%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.

Result
FC TwenteDrawSBV Excelsior
68.73% (0.175 0.17) 17.31% (-0.058 -0.06) 13.96% (-0.115 -0.12)
Both teams to score 58.63% (-0.10599999999999 -0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.56% (0.019999999999996 0.02)32.44% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.93% (0.021999999999998 0.02)54.07% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
FC Twente Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.42% (0.043999999999997 0.04)8.58% (-0.0419 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.35% (0.107 0.11)29.65% (-0.106 -0.11)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.14% (-0.146 -0.15)35.86% (0.147 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.36% (-0.148 -0.15)72.64% (0.14999999999999 0.15)
Score Analysis
    FC Twente 68.73%
    SBV Excelsior 13.96%
    Draw 17.31%
FC TwenteDrawSBV Excelsior
2-1 @ 9.52% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.28% (0.029 0.03)
3-1 @ 7.79% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 7.59% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
1-0 @ 7.56% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.78% (0.016 0.02)
4-0 @ 4.66% (0.033 0.03)
3-2 @ 3.99% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.45% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
5-1 @ 2.35% (0.012 0.01)
5-0 @ 2.29% (0.021 0.02)
5-2 @ 1.2% (0.002 0)
6-1 @ 0.96% (0.007 0.01)
6-0 @ 0.94% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 3.37%
Total : 68.73%
1-1 @ 7.75% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.88% (-0.023000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 3.08% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-3 @ 1.37% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 17.31%
1-2 @ 3.97% (-0.027 -0.03)
0-1 @ 3.16% (-0.015 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.67% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.62% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.36% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 13.96%

How you voted: FC Twente vs Excelsior

FC Twente
92.6%
Draw
3.7%
SBV Excelsior
3.7%
27
Head to Head
Apr 1, 2023 5.45pm
Aug 31, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 3
FC Twente
4-0
Excelsior
Cleonise (1'), Tzolis (8'), Cerny (62', 90+2')
Dec 23, 2017 7.45pm
Oct 27, 2017 7pm
FC Twente
1-3
Excelsior
Boere (2')
Cuevas (38'), Lam (87')
Faik (41'), Massop (74'), Karami (80')
Caenepeel (84')
Feb 12, 2017 11.30am
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV16140256134342
2Ajax16113235161936
3FC UtrechtUtrecht1611323223936
4Feyenoord16105140182235
5FC Twente1694332201231
6AZ AlkmaarAZ1692530171329
7Go Ahead Eagles166462826222
8Fortuna SittardSittard166462023-322
9NAC BredaNAC Breda167181825-722
10Heerenveen166371728-1121
11Willem II165471718-119
12NECNijmegen165292220217
13PEC Zwolle174581626-1017
14Groningen164481426-1216
15Heracles163581833-1514
16Sparta RotterdamSparta162681424-1012
17RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk1714121841-237
18Almere CityAlmere City161312737-306


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