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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 68.73%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 13.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 3-1 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.75%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Twente | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
68.73% ( 0.17) | 17.31% ( -0.06) | 13.96% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 58.63% ( -0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.56% ( 0.02) | 32.44% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.93% ( 0.02) | 54.07% ( -0.02) |
FC Twente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.42% ( 0.04) | 8.58% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.35% ( 0.11) | 29.65% ( -0.11) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.14% ( -0.15) | 35.86% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.36% ( -0.15) | 72.64% ( 0.15) |
Score Analysis |
FC Twente | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.28% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.45% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.35% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 2.29% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 1.2% ( 0) 6-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.37% Total : 68.73% | 1-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.08% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 17.31% | 1-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 3.16% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.19% Total : 13.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 42 |
2 | Ajax | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 36 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 35 |
5 | FC Twente | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 31 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 29 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 22 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 22 |
10 | Heerenveen | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 |
11 | Willem II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 37 | -30 | 6 |
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