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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Go Ahead Eagles win with a probability of 68.34%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 13.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 1-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.36%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-2 (3.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Go Ahead Eagles would win this match.
Result | ||
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | Heracles |
68.34% ( 0.28) | 18.02% ( -0.12) | 13.64% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 54.87% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.23% ( 0.21) | 36.77% ( -0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.07% ( 0.23) | 58.93% ( -0.23) |
Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.19% ( 0.13) | 9.81% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.41% ( 0.29) | 32.59% ( -0.29) |
Heracles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.84% ( -0.09) | 39.16% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.13% ( -0.08) | 75.87% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | Heracles |
2-0 @ 10.35% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.52% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.03) 5-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.12% Total : 68.33% | 1-1 @ 8.36% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.02% | 1-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.79% Total : 13.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
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