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FA Cup
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FA Cup | Fourth Round
Jan 29, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Ewood Park
Wrexham AFC

Blackburn
4 - 1
Wrexham

Szmodics (32', 45+1'), Gallagher (34'), Tronstad (59')
Garrett (51')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Cannon (19')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's FA Cup clash between Blackburn Rovers and Wrexham, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Blackburn Rovers

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Blackburn 1-1 Huddersfield
Saturday, January 20 at 3pm in Championship

Wrexham

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Newport 1-0 Wrexham
Saturday, January 20 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Blackburn Rovers 3-1 Wrexham

 Enforced defensive alterations on both ends should give rise to an exciting affair at Ewood Park, especially given Blackburn's propensity to both score and concede, but Rovers' rearguard woes should not prove too costly on Monday. Wrexham ought to put up a good fight and should come up with the goods in the attacking third on at least one occasion, but a Blackburn side with plenty of recent errors to rectify should prove too strong for the League Two promotion-chasers. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Blackburn Rovers win with a probability of 49.98%. A win for Wrexham had a probability of 27.32% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Blackburn Rovers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.78%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Wrexham win was 1-2 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Blackburn Rovers would win this match.

Result
Blackburn RoversDrawWrexham
49.98% (2.141 2.14) 22.69% (0.191 0.19) 27.32% (-2.334 -2.33)
Both teams to score 61.73% (-2.546 -2.55)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.37% (-2.576 -2.58)38.63% (2.575 2.58)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.07% (-2.773 -2.77)60.93% (2.772 2.77)
Blackburn Rovers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.3% (-0.2 -0.2)15.7% (0.198 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.23% (-0.372 -0.37)44.76% (0.369 0.37)
Wrexham Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.23% (-2.839 -2.84)26.77% (2.838 2.84)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.95% (-3.9 -3.9)62.05% (3.897 3.9)
Score Analysis
    Blackburn Rovers 49.98%
    Wrexham 27.32%
    Draw 22.69%
Blackburn RoversDrawWrexham
2-1 @ 9.49% (0.276 0.28)
1-0 @ 7.78% (0.866 0.87)
2-0 @ 7.2% (0.758 0.76)
3-1 @ 5.86% (0.131 0.13)
3-0 @ 4.45% (0.44 0.44)
3-2 @ 3.86% (-0.234 -0.23)
4-1 @ 2.71% (0.043 0.04)
4-0 @ 2.06% (0.191 0.19)
4-2 @ 1.79% (-0.121 -0.12)
5-1 @ 1.01% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 49.98%
1-1 @ 10.25% (0.362 0.36)
2-2 @ 6.26% (-0.335 -0.34)
0-0 @ 4.2% (0.493 0.49)
3-3 @ 1.7% (-0.257 -0.26)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 22.69%
1-2 @ 6.76% (-0.313 -0.31)
0-1 @ 5.54% (0.234 0.23)
0-2 @ 3.65% (-0.143 -0.14)
1-3 @ 2.97% (-0.402 -0.4)
2-3 @ 2.75% (-0.394 -0.39)
0-3 @ 1.6% (-0.205 -0.21)
1-4 @ 0.98% (-0.227 -0.23)
2-4 @ 0.91% (-0.217 -0.22)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 27.32%

How you voted: Blackburn vs Wrexham

Blackburn Rovers
59.4%
Draw
9.7%
Wrexham
31.0%
155
rhs 2.0
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> Premier League Full Table


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