We said: Mauritius 1-2 Kenya
Having played a game less than the other sides, Kenya could secure second place with a win, which would be a great outcome for them and a huge step for Kenyan football as a whole. They showed enough ability in their win over Pakistan for us to fancy them to edge this one.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mauritius win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for Kenya had a probability of 31.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mauritius win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Kenya win was 0-1 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mauritius in this match.