Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 58.02%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 20.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 1-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.7%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 1-2 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Barcelona in this match.