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League One
Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 15
Oct 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Brunton Park
Burton Albion

Carlisle
2 - 1
Burton Albion

Gibson (53'), Garner (88')
Garner (77')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Helm (28')
Hamer (25'), Maamria (26'), Helm (36'), Lubala (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Portsmouth 1-0 Carlisle
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One

Burton Albion

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Burton Albion 4-1 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One

We said: Carlisle United 1-2 Burton Albion

 Burton have been flying in recent weeks, moving from the relegation zone to the brink of the play-off spots almost in the blink of an eye. Carlisle, on the other hand, appear set to struggle this season, and we can envisage them falling to a third straight defeat on Tuesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (9.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawBurton Albion
41.01% (-0.767 -0.77) 27.07% (0.399 0.4) 31.92% (0.37 0.37)
Both teams to score 49.94% (-1.09 -1.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.74% (-1.45 -1.45)55.26% (1.451 1.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.52% (-1.203 -1.2)76.49% (1.207 1.21)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.5% (-1.069 -1.07)26.5% (1.072 1.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.3% (-1.441 -1.44)61.7% (1.445 1.45)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.95% (-0.485 -0.48)32.05% (0.488 0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.48% (-0.557 -0.56)68.52% (0.559 0.56)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 41%
    Burton Albion 31.92%
    Draw 27.07%
Carlisle UnitedDrawBurton Albion
1-0 @ 11.27% (0.28 0.28)
2-1 @ 8.52% (-0.154 -0.15)
2-0 @ 7.49% (-0.035 -0.04)
3-1 @ 3.77% (-0.188 -0.19)
3-0 @ 3.32% (-0.119 -0.12)
3-2 @ 2.15% (-0.137 -0.14)
4-1 @ 1.25% (-0.103 -0.1)
4-0 @ 1.1% (-0.074 -0.07)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 41%
1-1 @ 12.83% (0.16 0.16)
0-0 @ 8.49% (0.467 0.47)
2-2 @ 4.85% (-0.155 -0.16)
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 27.07%
0-1 @ 9.67% (0.408 0.41)
1-2 @ 7.3% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.5% (0.162 0.16)
1-3 @ 2.77% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-3 @ 2.09% (0.034 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.84% (-0.084 -0.08)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 31.92%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Burton Albion

Carlisle United
31.3%
Draw
6.3%
Burton Albion
62.5%
16
Head to Head
Apr 15, 2015 7.45pm
Burton Albion
1-1
Carlisle
Johnstone (98')
Grainger (2')
Buddle (69')
> Match Report
Oct 21, 2014 7.45pm
Carlisle
3-4
Burton Albion
Dempsey (12'), Potts (45'), Asamoah (65')
White (51')
McCrory (5'), Bell (27'), Blyth (40'), MacDonald (45')
MacDonald (51'), Beavon (58')
Beavon (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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