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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 49.17%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 26.89% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.39%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-2 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.
Result | ||
Reading | Draw | Exeter City |
49.17% ( 0.13) | 23.94% ( -0) | 26.89% ( -0.13) |
Both teams to score 57.02% ( -0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.31% ( -0.09) | 44.69% ( 0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.95% ( -0.09) | 67.05% ( 0.08) |
Reading Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.73% ( 0.02) | 18.27% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.67% ( 0.03) | 49.33% ( -0.03) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.76% ( -0.15) | 30.23% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.6% ( -0.17) | 66.4% ( 0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Reading | Draw | Exeter City |
2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.39% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.3% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0) Other @ 3.49% Total : 49.17% | 1-1 @ 11.23% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.93% | 1-2 @ 6.72% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.61% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.08% Total : 26.89% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 29 |
2 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 26 |
3 | Wrexham | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 25 |
4 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 24 |
5 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 24 |
6 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 23 |
7 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 22 |
8 | Barnsley | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 22 |
9 | Reading | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 22 |
10 | Stockport CountyStockport | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 21 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 19 |
12 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 19 |
13 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 18 |
14 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 17 |
15 | Stevenage | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 17 |
16 | Blackpool | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 16 |
17 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 16 |
18 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
19 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 14 |
20 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 11 |
21 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 10 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 10 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 8 |
24 | Burton Albion | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 4 |
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