Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.